2023 Elections – The Results Are In
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We all know that elections have consequences. Now that the Chicago 2023 municipal elections are concluded, it is fair to say that most members of the Rogers Park Builders Group (RPBG) and the Neighborhood Building Owners Alliance (NBOA) believe these consequences will include increased conflict between our members and elected officials and a new round of legislative efforts unfriendly to our businesses.
At both the Mayoral and Aldermanic levels, the far left of the Democratic Party made gains. The Mayoral race especially was a heartbreaker, given housing providers’ near unanimous support for Paul Vallas. With Brandon Johnson’s win, it seems likely that the Mayor and City Council will be even less receptive to the legitimate interests and concerns of our industry and that it will now be even more difficult to own and operate apartment properties in Chicago and Cook County.
The Mayoral race featured two very different candidates. Many members of RPBG and NBOA supported Paul Vallas, a centrist Democrat with an impressive track record of effective governmental service, expertise in managing large and complex budgets, including the school districts of Chicago, Philadelphia and New Orleans, and common sense approaches to the city’s most challenging problems, like reducing crime, promoting economic growth and reigning in run-away spending and taxation.
At both the Mayoral and Aldermanic levels, the far left of the Democratic Party made gains.
Running against him was Brandon Johnson, a relatively unknown and untried candidate who is employed as an organizer by the Chicago Teachers Union (CTU) and has served for four years on the Cook County Board of Commissioners. He gained the backing (and financial support) of the CTU that has long aspired to install one of its own on the fifth floor of City Hall. With Mr. Johnson’s victory, the CTU has achieved its goal.
Mr. Johnson is very much the type of candidate the CTU would back, proposing massive new taxation to the tune of $800 million dollars to fund a slew of progressive programs meant to even out the disparities that exist in Chicago. Not that some of these goals are not worth pursuing. But the question always remains – who will pay and how will the city find the money for these programs without ruining its credit and driving even more people and businesses away in the process? For Mr. Johnson and the CTU, the answer was clear. The business community and wealthy individuals will pay more – and need to either get with the program or leave.
it is clear that the new Mayor will have majority support for a lot of his initiatives. At least some of these initiatives will be quite harmful to housing providers and our interests.
The problem for Mr. Johnson is that businesses and wealthy individuals may choose to do the latter. The fact is that businesses and wealthy individuals have more options about where they can choose to operate or live. If either group begins to feel that they are being taxed too much while their interests are being disregarded or ignored, some of these same businesses and individuals will opt to set up shop or live elsewhere.
Is it fair, just or equitable for businesses and wealthy individuals to leave the city now that the political landscape has become less favorable to their interests? Perhaps not. But it is human nature. An acceleration of the flight of businesses and capital from Chicago seems much likelier to happen now that Johnson has won.
On the Aldermanic front, these same trends are in evidence, but perhaps without the “all-or-nothing” consequences of the Mayoral race. A quick tally of the before and after results of the elections shows that the Democratic Socialist Caucus appears to have increased their membership from five to eight Aldermen and women. It’s difficult to determine exactly how the newly elected City Council will align themselves under the new Mayor. But we can look at the actual performance and past experience of reelected Alderpersons and the stated policy positions of the 13 newly elected Alderpersons to have some idea of how the City Council will position itself after the May 15 swearing in.
Our best guess is that there will be roughly equal numbers of solid pro-Johnson and pro-Business Alderpersons with 16 and 15 members, respectively. Of the remaining 19 City Council members, we may have to wait a while to know for sure, but it looks like the majority will be supportive of the new Mayor. We count 14 likely Johnson supporters against five that will be more independent in their voting habits.
It is likely that the plurality of Alderpersons who support Brandon Johnson will also support additional legislation that they believe benefits tenants at the expense of housing providers.
All of this can and probably will change, so take these numbers with a grain of salt. But, even assuming we are wrong in our final count, it is clear that the new Mayor will have majority support for a lot of his initiatives. And, make no mistake – at least some of these initiatives will be quite harmful to housing providers and our interests.
If there is a silver lining, it is the success of many of the NBOA-endorsed candidates who have shown at least a willingness to consider the interests of property owners. NBOA endorsed 34 candidates for the City Council elections; 25 of them won – exactly 50% of the City Council overall. On the North Side, these include both Timmy Knudsen (43rd) and Gilbert Villegas (36th) who prevailed in their hard fought elections.
These victories aside, there were also some tough defeats. Perhaps the most difficult losses for members of RPBG were suffered on the far North Side where all three Lakefront Wards (the 46th, 48th and 49th) saw Progressive and/or Democratic Socialist candidates win. Angela Clay won in the 46th Ward in the runoff elections and was endorsed by the Democratic Socialists. Leni Manaa-Hoppenworth (48th) eked out a narrow victory in the runoffs, and incumbent Maria Hadden (49th) won resoundingly in the general election. Both are self-professed Progressives who strongly support Johnson’s agenda. It is not a coincidence that little new, market-rate housing has been built in the 49th Ward since Ms. Hadden took office. Developers of market-rate multifamily housing may now face similar political headwinds in the 46th and 48th Wards.
The next few years will present more challenges for our industry in a political environment that gets ever less receptive to our concerns and points of view.
Other disappointing defeats were the reelection of Daniel La Spata in the 1st Ward where he hung on in the runoff election with just a fraction over 50% of the vote. Byron Sigcho-Lopez also won in the general election by a small margin over challenger (and NBOA-endorsed candidate) Aida Flores. Both La Spata and Sigcho-Lopez were already members of the Democratic Socialist caucus and have been among the fiercest foes of housing providers and our businesses.
Given the gains made both at the city and ward levels by the far left, we can reasonably conclude that being a housing provider is not going to get any easier in the coming months and years. The election virtually ensures that there will be continued attacks on our industry and even on some of our members. It is likely that the plurality of Alderpersons who support Brandon Johnson will also support additional legislation that they believe benefits tenants at the expense of housing providers. This legislation will likely include just cause eviction, rent control and more.
With the far left of the Democratic Party now firmly in control of both City Hall and the statehouse in Springfield, there is also a strong likelihood that we will see more legislation at the state level designed to benefit tenants and further disadvantage housing providers. The odds that rent control will be enacted in Chicago and other progressive enclaves like Evanston and Oak Park are surely higher now than they were before April 4th.
Where we go from here is anyone’s best guess. What is not in dispute is that the next few years will present more challenges for our industry in a political environment that gets ever less receptive to our concerns and points of view. The new political landscape in Chicago is going to negatively impact multifamily property owners, not just in Chicago but also in Cook County and even the rest of Illinois. And yes, elections do have consequences.
